Effective Government : EI Weekend 2968
Farewell interview from an excellent PM. The Anglo-American thinking rift, Potemkin financial institutions in Africa…EU…Defund the OECD.
Exchange Invest is a unique information resource combining the day’s stories in a newsletter for investors in exchanges/financial markets infrastructure.
Exchange Invest was founded by former exchange CEO and author of the first bestselling book of fintech (“Capital Market Revolution!” FT 1999) Patrick Young. Monday through Friday our daily paid subscriber email discusses the business of bourses of all kinds across the world.
On this day in 1993, Dow Jones closed above 3,500 for the first Time (3,500.03).
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MACRO THOUGHTS
Interview With Lee Hsien Loong: Two Decades As Prime Minister | Part 1 — Foreign Policy, Economy
Interview With Lee Hsien Loong: Two Decades As Prime Minister | Part 2 — Social Safety, Politics
CNA YouTube
PLY: Brigadier General Lee Hsien Loong moved from the Singaporean army into politics and has had a remarkable term as PM of the City State for almost 20 years (August 12 2004 to May 15, 2024) after Goh Chok Tong served for 13 years following the founding PM, PM Lee’s father, Lee Kuan Yew.
This is a long interview but a sound demonstration of the benefit to the Singapore model where they pay millions for their PM but at the same time, they get a proper committed vision of leadership in a functioning nation across the government service and the political classes.
IN BIGWORLD
From Exchange Invest 2959: Wednesday, May 8th:
FESE along with EBF and EFAMA have issued an interesting Oliver Wyman written report about the future of EU Capital markets. A good read and a pleasant 16 pages make it approachable in a world of bigger, boring verbosity being far too commonplace.
Anyway, PLY has made much in recent months of the shocking example of the 15-year plunge of the EU economy. The Eurozone and the US were roughly at parity in 2008 ($14.2 trillion versus $14.8 trillion on a “current prices basis” — source Le Monde). By 2023 the Eurozone GDP was just over $15 trillion while the US GDP was $26.9.
Rem: Growth over 15 years of EU as a whole, 9%, USA: 86%.
The FESE report notes how EU equity market capitalisation has grown 2016–2022 by 48–66% of GDP whereas the US with far superior economic growth has leapt from 104% to 157% of GDP! Liquidity (turnover velocity) was constant in the US at 145% of GDP whereas in the EU it declined from 68% to 52%.
US pension, insurance, and household assets are 6X US GDP whereas even in the largest EU economies, they are barely 2–3X in France, Germany, and Spain. There are some bright spots. Whereas USA is 622% of GDP, In Europe, EU market leaders include Denmark (654%) and Sweden (483%) — which of course fall in the epicentre of the Nasdaq SME stock listing centre of excellence.
In capital market direct investments, the US sits at 288% of GDP compared to 40% to 100% of GDP in EU nations. Indirect allocation is a whopping 525% of US GDP versus 130–200% in the major EU nations.
The fascinating part is if the EU matched the US, that would mean an additional €35 trillion of capital in Germany, Italy and Spain alone albeit the equity market capitalization of the entire European Union was €13 trillion in 2022.
NEXT TUESDAY: IPO-VID LIVESTREAM
A 15 year LIFFE floor veteran market maker, Jason Sen has almost 40 years experience trading, most recently as a day trader and skilled technical analyst on screen from his home in Thailand.
Guest: Jason Sen
May 21st, 2024
1700 UK, 1800 CET, 1200 EST
Tune in on:
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EXCHANGE INVEST WEEKLY PODCAST
CFTC All Politics No Markets,
Yield Curve Connect Improves,
Oz Parl collates Feedback On The ASX “CHESS Mess”
LSEG Reckons Its IPO Pipeline Is Growing.
As the US country club duopoly look unstoppable for IPO flow
The Exchange Invest Weekly Podcast 245
BITCARNAGE
Rice Trading Off Blockchain
SBF finds himself still in pure play guilt denial (well technically he was raised to deny guilt exists so clearly he inherited a philosophical quandary from his parents) and is busy trading rice in jail (CoinTelegraph).
You may recall we discussed the fiscal outlook for SBF’s dealings in our (free) EI Weekend EI 2898 looking at mackerel, stamp books, and more being discussed in that issue even if tobacco has been reduced in importance thanks to smoke free prisons, leading to the great ramen noodle swap post US prison tobacco ban in 2015…
If you enjoyed this excerpt you may be interested to know that you can read Bitcarnage every day in Exchange Invest.
Alternatively, if you want to follow Bitcarnage — the daily update on happenings in the world of crypto and digital assets, then you can find Bitcarnage as a standalone on Substack.
OF INTEREST
As always, a review of interesting reading to provoke thoughts and consideration… Not sure we agree with much of it….but it’s thought-provoking!
Why The British Think Differently From Americans
The Spectator
PLY: A very interesting piece…albeit my concern is that no matter what the education system folks all seem to think remarkably the same in linear terms nowadays.
Africa’s Proposed New Financial Institutions Risk Being Potemkin Villages
ISS Africa
The EU Is Turning Into A Remainer Nightmare
UnHerd
PLY: To be read in conjunction with this article by somebody supporting UK rejoining EU: Working In Brussels, I Saw The Dark Side Of The EU (The Spectator).
It’s Time To Defund The OECD
Cato at Liberty Blog
PLY: Global taxation is one dumb concept — the costs of capture / compliance are off the charts for governments and corporates alike leading to a huge waste of time / energy but the key reason the OECD ought to be defunded is that its predictions are simply useless.
E.g. this ScienceDirect paper: The Accuracy Of OECD Forecasts Of The International Economy: Balance Of Payments which notes “The OECD’s forecasts of services and private transfers, and official transfers are cause for particular concern: the accuracy of these forecasts is low, often below that of corresponding time-series forecasts, and rationality tests indicate that they are most prone to inefficiency and inconsistency.” A swift Google displays an organisation institutionally incapable of accuracy with its costly predictions as reported by all sides of the political debate for a decade and well beyond, e.g. from The Grauniad 2014: OECD Admits Overstating Growth Forecasts Amid Eurozone Crisis And Global Crash.
IPO-VID NOW ONLINE
After over 8 years in charge of the Botswana Stock Exchange, Thapelo Tsheole was recently announced as the new CEO of the Rwanda Capital Markets Authority. Join us for a fascinating discussion on this dynamic economy and its financial markets.
Guest: Thapelo Tsheole
May 14th, 2024
1700 UK, 1800 CET, 1200 EST
Watch the stream on:
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Books worth reading:
FINANCE BOOK OF THE WEEK
In response to reader’s queries, we have added a book of the week column to the EI weekend edition — interesting books pertaining to exchanges and markets, investment et al.
- Anybody can sign up for EI Weekend for free at ExchangeInvest.com.
This week’s book was written by our IPO-VID 139 guest, Bharat Kulkarni
“ECX and the Winds of Change: A memoir from Ethiopia” is a compelling memoir that unveils the gripping tale of how a simple idea was turned into an industry-disrupting Institution. Readers will be drawn into the roller-coaster journey of establishing the Ethiopia Commodity Exchange (ECX).
Get the book here.
*Paid link, as an Amazon Associate, Exchange Invest earns from qualifying purchases.
Suggestions welcome if you would like to nominate a book for us to cover!
Our next Book of the week will be unveiled Saturday in the EI Weekend Edition.
& don’t forget if you want all the news on the bourse business sent daily to your Inbox subscribe to Exchange Invest — via Exchange Invest.com — it’s only $375 per annum to join “The Exchange of Information.
VICTORY OR DEATH
Victory Or Death” is a must-read book for anyone interested in the intersection of Blockchain, Cryptocurrency and FinTech giving a holistic view of the future of markets.
*Paid link, as an Amazon Associate, Exchange Invest earns from qualifying purchases.
LAST WORD
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