Exchange Invest Festive Edition 2851: Energy Rotation! Barbie! K Pop!
2023 in Review part 2 from The Barbie effect to K Pop. A massive ongoing energy rotation, topics in / around & far beyond the market parish!
Parish Notes
The Barbie Effect?
AKA How Exchange Invest’s Ace Research team donned pink lab coats to discover a 200 Basis Point pick-up.
Last year we popped a little bubble which had quite gripped the “meeja” at one point: that there was somehow an Anne Hathaway effect of her movies boosting the stock market.
That was rather disappointing all round as we remain partial to movies with La Hathaway but investment alpha alas they did not deliver! However, our ace research team who power Exchange Invest’s thinking donned their finest pink lab coats and found some rather fascinating data which suggests… not only is that remarkable doll box office gold right now but there may even be a “Barbie effect” in the stock market too!
Barbie already exerts considerable leverage on parent company Mattel. Her portfolio accounted for some 20% of the company’s profits… even before the firm moved into the movie business. Over $377 million dollars worldwide later, after a fabulous first weekend in cinemas, Barbie is in the pink in every sense.
So, looking at the movie, we pondered the alpha (female) question: does Barbie in her movie guise add value to Mattel stock?
We identified some 38 key points in the Barbie production development dating back all the way to the announcement of Barbie going full Tinseltown (way back in 2009) and then through the roster of directors and Hollywood stars being added to the movie…
Move through trailer releases, various commercial partnerships and all manner of launches / publicity announcements et al and our ace researchers burnt the midnight oil to wrap their project last Friday even before the incredible first weekend of general release demonstrated that Oppenheimer thought it had the nuclear bomb thing all wrapped up but it couldn’t keep up with the simply quantum explosion of Barbie power.
So, it’s not nuclear mega BUT there’s a clear impact here. Over 38 iterations, Barbie movie announcements inspired 22 up days for Mattel stock and 16 down days. By comparison, on the same days, the S&P 500 managed 18 days up and 20 days down.
The end results aren’t seismic but we are looking at 38 days — not even 2 months in the aggregate of stock trading — and Barbie the movie gave us a 3.83% return when the S&P 500 managed 1.77%. That’s quite an edge over 38 sessions… Over 200 basis points of return or more than double the US benchmark index over the same period…
So where Anne Hathaway remains a bewitching star but couldn’t deliver investment returns to the broad market (always a big ask), thinking pink for your investment may make sense. On our modest data set, there is evidence Barbie has a positive impact on Mattel which helps it outperform the S&P 500.
Cue more calls following on from our post last Monday that we’re long overdue new dolls in the classic series: Barbie investor, Barbie hedge fund manager & similar financial high achievers…
Anyway, the Barbie effect ought to be welcome news for all those encouraging female investments as well as NASDAQ who list Mattel et al…
You can share this post from our Social media (Website, LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter & Medium) with your friends / colleagues and other Barbie fans…
In BigWorld
K Pop x1
Thanks for the feedback from all our lurking KPop fans following Wednesday’s BigWorld.
On a side note, KPop amounts to perhaps the best example of how free markets trump socialism every day. Where South Korea has provided the likes of Black Pink, BTS and Seventeen to name but three, up north Pyongyang’s Hyon Song-wol sang Excellent Horse-Like Lady in a state of the art (for North Korea) factory, shades of Martha Reeves & The Vandellas (Nowhere To Run 1965 only not such an advanced factory even for 1999).
This may not get through your office network but if you have a moment compare and contrast:
North Korea’s Hyon Song-wol: Excellent Horse-Like Lady or if you think that’s a harsh comparison, their talented all-female Moranbong Band singing With Pride / Com Orgulho.
BlackPink: BLACKPINK — ‘Pretty Savage’ Live at Coachella 2023
No disrespect to the talents of Hyon Song-Wol but I think for pure play capitalist pizazz wowing the crowds across the world, Blackpink edge the holistic entertainment factor
PS the North Korean lyrics to Excellent Horse-Like Lady are quite a thing:
“Our factory comrades say in jest,
Why they tell me I am a virgin on a stallion
After a full day’s work I still have energy left
My skills are truly like lightening they say…”
The DPRK regime may have severe flaws but at least they’re promoting a hard day’s work.
K Pop 2: From Exchange Invest 2802:
Tuesday, November 2nd:
Worth considering when you’re looking for a good anecdotal way to explain why free markets matter and centrally planned Communism doesn’t quite cut the diverse economic mustard.
The total GDP of North Korea is expected to peak a bit over $21 billion in 2023.
The global market for K Pop is right now somewhere between $8 billion and $9 billion alone.
IPO-VID LIVESTREAM
2023 saw no fewer than 37 IPO-VID livestreams for the year, you can watch them all here.
IPO-VID LIVESTREAM PODCAST
During 2023, we produced 43 IPO-VID livestream podcasts, you can listen to them all in different podcast sources:
EI Website Spotify Google Podcasts Apple Podcast
EI WEEKLY PODCAST
We have produced 50 EI Weekly podcasts for the year 2023, you can listen to it all here.
Victory or Death
20 years on from the first fintech bestseller “Capital Market Revolution!”… “Victory Or Death” is a must read book for anyone interested in the intersection of Blockchain, Cryptocurrency and FinTech as part of the whole future of finance.
Available worldwide.
*Paid link, as an Amazon Associate, Exchange Invest earns from qualifying purchases.
Finance Book Of The Week
In our first year featuring a “Finance Book of the Week” no fewer than 31 books by 31 authors during 2023 for our Exchange Invest Finance Of The Week, you can check them all out here.
Macro Thoughts
The Great Energy Rotation (September 29th)
Cushing Oil Hub’s Low Levels Spur Quality, Operational, Price Worries
Reuters
“”If you let the crude (level) drop too low, the crude can get sludgy and you can’t get it out. What does come out — you won’t be able to use,” said Carl Larry, a sales director at energy consultants Wood Mackenzie.”
PLY: (This is an abbreviated version of longer Exchange Invest subscriber content): It’s looking increasingly like the end of an era albeit denial is a big beast in South Wacker. Ever since the epic failure of CME to keep up with oil trends was writ large, the story has been one of when, not if, CME’s Cushing WTI would be toppled as the global oil benchmark.
Houston was where the pricing was at even before the last mega banking crisis. Cushing was a kind of community rest stop for oil thanks to the CME’s rather old fashioned settlement affection.
While it’s all in the genre of light sweet, there’s a vast chasm between what today is West Texas Intermediate and what is the WTI future on CME, which is such a sweet crude, it’s like comparing Hershey bars (CME) with Lindt (WTI Houston). Thus nowadays the market (apart from the folks of CME) are differentiating the Cushing stuff as DSW (Domestic Sweet) with “WTI” truly being from West Texas, mostly around Midland, being a far superior oil for a range of purposes.
The switch is finally happening — the hedgers are leaving NYMEX/CME for ICE Midland, the real WTI… soon the DSW CME WTI will prove a hollow benchmark which endangers the additional revenue streams from ETPs et al.
Of Interest
The Greatest Global Error Of Economic Thinking
Modern Diplomacy
Caterpillars are always dreaming of flying: Well, if an economist were ever to laugh at a caterpillar for dreaming of flying…
PLY: Interesting point — entrepreneurs do great things, entirely despite the prevailing government. Or economists.
The only flaw to this cri de coeur is an action plan — by involving the political classes and broader blob, it is, by definition, bound to fail.
How The Philippines Makes The Invasion Of Taiwan So Difficult: The Bashi Channel
Kamome
PLY: Fascinating video explaining the complexity around a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
How A Small Change To U.S. Quarters Is Part Of A Big Trend In Logo Design
Fast Company
PLY: The heraldry story is fascinating albeit the shift to the right is also easy to explain in relation to the simple rules of cartoons / anime — characters going to the left are regressing, characters going to the right are progressing…
Why China Won’t Invade Taiwan
Chinese Whispers Podcast (The Spectator)
How The Elites Squandered Brexit
UnHerd
Brexit Has Stumped Our Zombie Elites
Unherd
PLY: In essence, the people sought to take back control but the blob buried the request pending an interminable number of appeal processes.
The Bizarre Reality Of Getting Online In North Korea
Wired UK
After The Reports And Recriminations, What Is Left To Learn About The 2023 Bank Failures?
GARP
PLY: An excellent piece by Jeff Kutler who was also a guest on IPO-VID 096 (February 28th): Jeffrey Kutler’s Journey From ATMs To Cryptocurrencies.
Jack Ma’s Clash With Beijing Has Cost Alibaba And Ant Over $1.14 Trillion
The Straits Times
The Titan Submersible Implosion Was “An Accident Waiting to Happen”
The New Yorker
“Another “mission specialist” wrote in a blog post that, a month before the implosion, Rush had confessed that he’d “gotten the carbon fiber used to make the Titan at a big discount from Boeing because it was past its shelf-life for use in airplanes.””
Milan Kundera And The Tragedy Of Central Europe
Spiked
How The Unbearable Lightness Of Being Enthralled A Generation
The Spectator
To read him [Milan Kundera] as a teenager was in many ways to be wrenched into adulthood and realise there were other countries, other ways of seeing — in fact, quite different moral systems — beyond your own. So many of us fell under his spell and have never quite emerged from it.
How China’s Billions Are Hurting Latin America
NY Post
The Forgotten End Of The Second World War
The Spectator
About 200 ‘Ndrangheta Members, Bosses And Associates Convicted At Historic Mafia Trial
Courthouse News Service
PLY: h/t Ann Berg. Fascinating that whereas a generation ago Tito Rina and the Pentiti were world-wide news, here 3 female judges sent down a vast collection of mafiosi with barely a broader meeja ripple outside Italy itself. In Memoriam: Gianni Falcone and the many brave Italians who have fought organised crime.
Agile Software Development Needs To Die (And Everyone Knows It)
Tim Denning, Medium
Nobody Knows What The Point Of Homework Is
Vox
A Thankless Job: Exposing Official Corruption In Lebanon
Geopolitical Monitor
What Happens When A State Fails
The Spectator
“‘If there’s a problem in Lebanon, the answer is always corruption,’ says Maria. ‘No money? Corruption. No electricity? Corruption. Why don’t we have buses or public transport? Why did hundreds of people die in the port blast? The answer is always the same.’”
Special
If you want a bit more reading and pomp, Special: Exchange Invest Weekend Edition 2810: City of London Special
And let’s end the year with a laugh, in the midst of Barbiemania, I shared my favourite joke:
From Exchange Invest 2715: Friday, July 21st:
Spoiler alert, some of our Philippine office staff have already enjoyed the Barbie movie as it was released in Manila Wednesday but the worldwide release is today. If you haven’t already prepared yourself, expect the weekend to have a pink hue, particularly if you are parenting little girls.
The mega Barbie marketing effort around the movie’s launch means I can offer my favourite joke as an icebreaker ahead of Barbie mania:
A man goes into a shop, and spends quite some time looking at the vast array of Barbie toys.
An assistant notices his intense study of the shelves and asks if she can help.
“Oh I would like to buy my daughter a Barbie doll for her birthday,” says the man.
“What a wonderful idea,” says the shop assistant and proceeds to recite a hugely lengthy list of possibilities (curtailed for space in the newsletter to) …Barbie astronaut, $49.99, Barbie lawyer $49.99, Barbie stockbroker $49.99, Barbie photographer $49.99, Barbie catwalk model $49.99, Barbie Senator $49.99 and Barbie divorcee $999.99.”
“Okay,” says the man a little puzzled, “so how come the prices are…” (you can recite the list again if you have sufficient time and / or love drawing jokes out)” …Barbie architect $49.99, Barbie debutante, Barbie engineer $49.99, Barbie Mermaid $49.99, Barbie policewoman $49.99, Barbie soldier $49.99, Barbie naval officer $49.99, President Barbie $49.99, CEO Barbie $49.99, Barbie Surgeon $49.99… and yet Barbie divorcee is $999.99?”
“Oh, that’s simple,” says the shop assistant in a flash.
“Barbie divorcee comes with Ken’s boat, Ken’s car, Ken’s house, Ken’s helicopter, Ken’s beach hut, Ken’s ski chalet…
Thank you for reading, we will be back Tuesday with a review edition over the festive period of parish news for EI Daily subscribers and the EI Weekend will return next Saturday.
It only remains to wish you a Very Happy, Healthy, Peaceful & Prosperous New Year, here’s to a fantastic 2024 in the parish of markets & beyond!
-Patrick
