Exchange Invest Weekend Edition 2619: From AI to Obsolescence
(More) AI hypocrisy. Failed states, losing soft power & the deterioration of built-in obsolescence plus a German mega fraud retold.
Exchange Invest is a unique information resource combining the day’s stories in a newsletter for investors in exchanges/financial markets infrastructure.
Exchange Invest was founded by former exchange CEO and author of the first bestselling book of fintech (“Capital Market Revolution!” FT 1999) Patrick Young. Monday through Friday our daily paid subscriber email discusses the business of bourses of all kinds across the world.
This weekly edition is a magazine of broader macro topics as well as including our free weekly podcast which reviews the highlights of the week in the world’s market structure.
On this day in 1929, a mini-crash began as investors started to sell, revealing the market’s shaky foundations. For the many people playing the market with borrowed money, the day was a disaster, as margin calls wiped out their holdings. When investors sought to borrow more money, interest rates soared to 20 percent. The New York Daily News called it a “selling avalanche.”
IN BIGWORLD
From Exchange Invest 2617: March 23rd, Thursday:
Today marks 2 years since the world saw how hand brake turns in a “Fast & Furious” manner are not a good way to traverse the Suez Canal, especially when you’re in charge of the 399.94 metre, 20,124 TEU, Ever Given. Incidentally, the Ever Given is in Qingdao harbour as I type, presumably resting up before a few beers to celebrate surviving its famous shuffle of 2021.
In the broader interweb, our social media is today devoting some space to that epic moment in maritime history where the world’s supply chains, already battered by Covid briefly became more pear shaped still.
You might presume Evergreen, the company which owns the Ever Given, has been suffering since its off piste excursion blocked the fast way between the Med and the Red. On the other hand, you might have discerned that with eye popping freight rates in recent times, it’s been a bit of a bumper year.
Evergreen reported a 39.82% jump in profit — a whopping $16.25 billion for FY 2022 according to The Straits Times. With consumer goods a huge driver, one might presume Evergreen staff bow to shrines honouring Alibaba/AliExpress prior to bedtime…
The Taiwanese shipping company is thus indulging in what might be called a case of “Ever Giving” bonuses. While awards depend on individual staff performance, the average is 10–11 months’ salary as a bonus for the 2022 financial year which comes on top of an up to 50 month bonus paid last December. In other words, 5 years salary as a bonus across the 3100 staff payroll! (Annual salaries at Evergreen range between $44,745 & $171,154 according to the jobs website Comparably).
True freight rates have declined sharply in recent months so 2023 bonuses might be lower but I suspect Evergreen staff will cope, particularly as they have the last laugh 2 years on from their infamous shipping problem!
IPO-VID LIVESTREAM
NEXT WEEK TUESDAY
Season 17: Episode 04: IPO-VID Livestream 100
March 28th: 1800 UK, 1900 CET, 1400 EST
“James Block: Examining Dirty Bubbles”
Lifelong Midwesterner, James Block is a psychiatry resident at the University of Michigan, having completed an MD/Ph.D. at Wayne State University. During medical school, he started researching cryptocurrency markets and discovered red flags concerning fraud and money laundering. This research grew into a newsletter, Dirty Bubble Media, dedicated to original investigations of various aspects of the “Dirtiest Bubble of the 21st Century.”
Dirty Bubble Media has exposed and contributed to the unravelling of 2 major frauds (Celsius Network and FTX) as well as exposing potential malfeasance at Signature Bank of New York.
Watch the stream on:
NOW ONLINE!
Season 17: Episode 03: IPO-VID Livestream 099
March 21st: 1800 UK, 1900 CET, 1300 EST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQLtuFCS8xU
“Colin Formosa: Maltese Money & More”
Oft occupied, frequently pillaged, permanently trading with the Levant and Europe, Malta has a rich commercial history dating back 10000 years. That is reflected in its remarkable coinage.
Secretary General of the recently established Malta Numismatic Society, Colin Formosa is a Master Mariner by education and Marine pilot by profession where he shepherds ships at the busy Grand Harbour of Valletta and the Malta Freeport (which handles circa 3 million TEUs PA).
Join us for a fun discussion of banknotes, tokens, jetons, medals, seals, dies & weights related to the Maltese Islands and beyond!
Watch the stream on:
IPO-VID LIVESTREAM PODCAST
https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/ipo-vid-by-patricklyoung
In IPO-VID Episode 090: Patrick Young was joined by the former CEO of both @Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange and #DCCC, Les Male.
Enjoy this discussion and learn more about “Developing Commodity Exchanges.
Available in different podcast sources:
Anchor Spotify Google Podcasts Apple Podcast
EI WEEKLY PODCAST
https://exchangeinvest.com/podcast/186-exchange-invest-weekly-podcast-march-25th-2023/
Chinese IDB Data Cut
FTX and their GUBU Loans
LME get hit with a minor warrant issue in Nickel
B3 are All In On Vermiculus
Happy 160 years to Stockholm
And there’s a big Swiss Imbalance in the shareholder register
The Exchange Invest Weekly Podcast 186
VICTORY OR DEATH
https://exchangeinvest.com/victory-or-death/
20 years on from the first fintech bestseller “Capital Market Revolution!”… “Victory Or Death” is a must read book for anyone interested in the intersection of Blockchain, Cryptocurrency and FinTech as part of the whole future of finance.
https://www.nasdaq.com/?utm_source=https%3A%2F%2Fexchangeinvest.com%2F
https://www.sinara.com/?exchangeinvest
Parish Notes
An excerpt from Exchange Invest 2616:
While a lot of folks are vexed about there being “No Go” on the “Co Cos” (see Matt Levine this week Money Stuff: UBS Got Credit Suisse For Almost Nothing and here), in the bourse parish this makes an interesting situation. Last time we checked in, last October 17th (EI 2482), I noted Credit Suisse was preparing asset sales and that likely meant a divestment of SiX shares.
If you want to stay ahead of the exchange curve, you need the bourse business daily, Exchange Invest — DM us to subscribe.
BITCARNAGE
I had not noticed it was ‘national promote a lost cause week’ as that might explain the next headline but then again Coinbase are acutely capable of forlornly chasing fleeing horses a sound T+several post stable bolt repo: Coinbase Submits Petition To SEC Explaining That Staking Is Not Securities (Cointelegraph).
At least we can agree on this statement of the obvious: Coinbase: ChatGPT Doesn’t Meet Accuracy Requirements For Integration Into Security Review Process (Cryptoslate). In a non crypto story in a similar vein, I note somebody from the Telegraph asked ChatGPT for a stock portfolio. It’s down at least 24% after 3 months which is a giddy level of failure that at least imputes some element of organisation along the way to such a dire result. Maybe those folks behind the Cramer / Invest Cramer stock picking ETFs will consider a similar ChatGPT ETP brace?
In the spirit of agreeing with Coinbase staff today, here’s a zero brainer: Coinbase Chief Legal Officer: What FTX Did Was ‘Flat-Out Fraud’ (Decrypt). …We merely await the judge’s decision on this.
Everyday we cover the ongoing turmoil of BTC, crypto et al in our daily “Bitcarnage” section of Exchange Invest, for more details on a free trial to our premium newsletter of the bourse business delivered to your Inbox daily, DM a reply to this newsletter saying “30 day trial, please.”
MACRO THOUGHTS
China’s Financial Overhaul Brings More Power To The Party, With US$58 Trillion In Assets At Stake
South China Morning Post
OF INTEREST
As always, a review of interesting reading to provoke thoughts and consideration… Not sure we agree with much of it….but it’s thought-provoking!
Crypto-Linked Bank Failures Fuel Regulation Debate
ZAWYA
Ai Hypocrites Can’t Be Allowed To Destroy Property Rights
The Telegraph
What Happens When A State Fails
The Spectator
How The Biggest Fraud In German History Unravelled
The New Yorker
Why Everything You Buy Is Worse Now
Vox
‘Russia Has Lost Its Soft Power’: How War In Ukraine Destabilises Old Soviet Allies
The Guardian
LAST WORD
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You can also check out the “Reflections From Young’s Pyramid”, it illustrates the relative value of exchanges around the world.
Or the “ICE Cost of Borrowing 2020–2022” An Interest Rate Comparison, which illustrates the end of the funny money era of QE and how interest rates have already had a major lurch up from their previous region of zero to, even negative, levels.
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Catch up on Monday for Exchange Invest 2620…
The future continues in the water cooler of the bourse business…
-Patrick
