Trump — A Guide for the Perplexed: EI Weekend 3246
For those struggling with the Trump agenda, an attempt at a guide to better comprehend a president who sews perplexity.
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MACRO THOUGHTS
The 1.6 mile long Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore cost $141 million bucks to build in 1977 — the equivalent of $740 million today.
Having been the subject of a freighter collision in 2024, the repair bill is estimated at $2 billion and is, of course, going to take an eon…
California’s Bullet Train project, begun in 2008, was supposed to cost $40 billion. After 15 years of construction, it’s going to cost $140 billion in total to complete 171 miles of track — which is likely to round out to at least a billion a mile (built predominantly in the middle of nowhere).
China, in the meantime, has built 16,000 miles of high-speed rail at a cost of $300 billion. Where California is approaching a billion a mile, China is 2% of the cost — $18 million per mile.
The EU delivers 18.5% of US Imports with a US trade deficit of $241 bln while China delivers 13.4% of US imports with a deficit of -$292 bln.
A fascinating nation in the crosshairs is Mexico, where the US enjoyed a trade surplus in $1.7 bln in 1993 to a deficit of $152.5 bln by 2023. Mexico implemented the NAFTA agreement on January 1st 1994.
Meanwhile — trigger warning — if you don’t want to read about President Donald J. Trump…The Great Gatsby, the brief but turbulent F. Scott Fitzgerald novel set in 1922, was published a century ago on Thursday, April 10th 1925, by Charles Scribner’s Sons.
We had a special EI Weekend to celebrate the centenary of this remarkable work last week.
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“How Floors Help Markets”
Guest: Dominik Roesch
April 15th, 2025
1700 UK, 1800 CET, 1200 EST
A recent academic paper discussed the benefits of floor traders, meet one of the authors: Dominik Roesch is an Associate Professor in Finance at the University at Buffalo. His research focuses on market quality, in particular, investigating the joint dynamics of arbitrage, liquidity, and efficiency. He has been part of an NSF infrastructure grant, which allowed him to build up a framework (based on OneTick software) to efficiently analyze financial data.
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IN BIGWORLD
From Exchange Invest 3238: April 3rd:
Exchange Invest sets itself apart from conventional ‘meeja’ in one simple way: we try to analyse things correctly as opposed to endorsing short-termist clickbait mania (which remarkably, a lot of Ivy Grads seem to still love).
Before you read on, please take a few deep breaths and do whatever grounds your chakras.
Every single meeja on the planet, the blob, you name it… ALL say Trump is mad, bad, dangerous and April 2nd will go down in history as a disaster.
Anybody remember the same kinds of folks ALL saying US Crime rates can never go down in the Clinton era (3 strikes vs Freakonomics… which was right? Well, the punditry was DEAD wrong).
Back to the great Mrs Thatcher, the meeja (often that bastion of unthinking recidivist lefties The Times) had numerous letters signed by hundreds of economists at a time saying her economics were all wrong. Net result? Another hit for the dismal science.
Trump has a grand vision which might not work BUT my natural contra indicator is flashing White Hot. If ALL the blob, pundits and vested interests say it’s a total disaster…
Meanwhile, From Exchange Invest 3243: April 9th:
For those licking their wounds in the stock market and pointing out how Donald Trump has impoverished them, not so fast I would suggest (H/T ann Berg for pointing this out…).
When first inaugurated as POTUS 45 on January 20th 2017
S&P 500: 2271.89
Dow Jones IA 19804.72
(close 19th Jan, 2017)
…and indeed, there had been a rally of around 8% in US stocks since Trump was elected the previous November.
PLY: Market Movers On Fintech TV
Catch me on Market Movers On Fintech TV every Monday at 0920 AM for the latest insights in finance, technology, impact investing, and market trends. Fintech TV is on the web (Fintech.TV), in a multitude of airports across the USA and other channels.
BITCARNAGE
Access Denied?
Fascinating story I spotted in my favourite daily newspaper, the South China Morning Post the other day noting:
US Cryptocurrency Exchange Coinbase Sees Worst Quarter Since FTX Collapse (South China Morning Post).
Once again, I feel forced to ask, where is this new age uncorrelated asset they call cryptocurrency?
#AskingForAFriend.
If you enjoyed this excerpt you may be interested to know that you can read Bitcarnage every day in Exchange Invest.
Alternatively, if you want to follow Bitcarnage — the daily update on happenings in the world of crypto and digital assets, then you can find Bitcarnage as a standalone on Substack.
EXCHANGE INVEST WEEKLY PODCAST
Saving the CFTC Is A Big Deal,
CME Launches CFDs,
XYT Bids For The EU Consolidated Tape,
As KRX Looks To Host Its Own Markets Overnight.
The Exchange Invest Weekly Podcast 290
OF INTEREST
As always, a review of interesting reading to provoke thoughts and consideration… Not sure we agree with much of it….but it’s thought-provoking!
Was ‘Free Trade’ Really Working? with American think tanker Oren Cass.
The Spectator
Donald Trump Takes On America’s Elite
FT
PLY: Given the “Brussels Bugle” is the daily read of the blob, particularly in the EU, it’s anything but the sort of paper with the capacity to say positive things about President Trump (most of its columnists are frankly delulu right now at the state of the world). However, this is a very good starter primer to what’s going on — and, indeed, reminding us of the failures of the first Trump regime, which simply didn’t have enough “Trumpists” and thus relied on a lot of the old failed hacks from the Bush eras etc.
Essentially, the only issue here is that the FT is upset because they rather like to think they are the elite. The Trump folks rather like elite folks, AKA people who show talent. However, in Trumpworld, they don’t rate the folks self-identifying as elite because they happen to have been to an Ivy League networking club, which often boasts rather linear thought processes. Thus, there is no irony in the Trump regime being educated in the Ivy League but sceptical about its modern values.
Howard Lutnick | All-In In DC!
All-In Podcast YouTube
PLY: Simply fascinating from start to finish. An interview with the new mellowed by politics Howard Lutnick by a brace of the “All In” podcasters who went to Washington recently. This is one of the most fascinating profiles of the Trump admin I have yet seen. A must-watch even at over 100 minutes.
NB The “All-In” guys interviewed the then-candidate former President Trump in 2024 (In Conversation With President Trump). With all 4 presenters from Silicon Valley being impressed by DJT, it was a fascinating moment missed by mainstream meeja that they could at least appreciate what the Trump campaign stood for. While Kamala was — well, nowhere in media terms — Trump was stumping these podcasts…racking up 3.5 million views…and impressing the sort of folks who would traditionally vote Democrat. Amongst the All-In original roster of presenters, BTW, David Sacks is now the White House AI and Crypto Czar.
There’s also a fascinating All-In podcast with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (Scott Bessent | All-In In DC!).
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Breaks Down Trump’s Tariff Plan And Its Impact On The Middle Class
Tucker Carlson
“If tariffs are so bad, why do they have’em?” — Treasury Secretary Bessent on the tariffs previously applied by others…
“Was there any good outcome from COVID? It woke the world up to these supply chain problems.
Economic security is national security.”
Will Trump’s Tariffs Unravel The Neoliberal Global Order?
The Spectator
PLY: Freddie Gray’s Americano Podcast talks to a US hedge fund manager…
Crashing The Car Of Pax Americana
Epsilon Theory
PLY: H/T Mark Schaedel for this fascinating article.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Remarks Before The American Bankers Association
US Treasury
“Let me begin by conveying the best wishes of our President. President Trump understands that national strength comes from the ground up — not the top down. This concept applies to good government just as much as it does to banking and capital formation. Yet for too long, financial policy has served large institutions, sometimes at the expense of smaller ones. No more.
This administration aims to give all banks the chance to succeed — whether it’s JP Morgan or your local mortgage and loan. It aims to get capital to Americans who need it most by getting bureaucracy out of the way.
For the last four decades, Wall Street has grown wealthier than ever before. And it can continue to grow and do well. But for the next four years, it’s Main Street’s turn.
It’s Main Street’s turn to hire workers. It’s Main Street’s turn to drive investment. And it’s Main Street’s turn to restore the American Dream.
And who will lead this revival? The men and women in this room.
As community bankers, you know the needs of small-town America better than anyone.”
~Treasury Secretary Bessent
Trump And The UN Are On A Collision Course
CapX
“The United Nations is a failed project. If Trump brings it to an end, we should not mourn its passing.”
PLY: This is pretty radical, but then again, supporting an organisation whose subsidiaries include entities which allow terrorists to horde weapons under hospitals…is probably one which needs a degree of better management at the very least?
Books worth reading:
Finance Book Of The Week
“Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets” by Jim Rogers takes us through the highlights of his life in the financial markets. Rogers offers often surprising observations on how the world works–-and what trends he sees in the future. He explains why Asia will be the dominant economic force in the twenty-first century…
Get the book here.
*Paid link, as an Amazon Associate, Exchange Invest earns from qualifying purchases.
Suggestions welcome if you would like to nominate a book for us to cover!
Our next Book of the week will be unveiled Saturday in the EI Weekend Edition.
& don’t forget if you want all the news on the bourse business sent daily to your Inbox subscribe to Exchange Invest — via Exchange Invest.com — it’s only $499 per annum to join “The Exchange of Information.
Capital Market Revolution
First published in 1999, “Capital Market Revolution!” offered a clear, concise roadmap for navigating the financial revolution fueled by technology. And 25 years later, as the world of fintech continues to evolve, the core principles laid out in the book remain surprisingly sharp
This new edition was produced to celebrate PLY ringing the NYSE Closing Bell July 5th, 2024. There are several new sections of PLY pith to add 10,000 more words of context and the original book which is remarkably prescient and elegantly dated all at once! It’s only $9.99 on Kindle, a fraction of the original price in 1999 to encourage revolutionaries with any budget!
Get the book here.
*Paid link, as an Amazon Associate, Exchange Invest earns from qualifying purchases.
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“Beyond 21st Century Corporations”
Guest: Sir John Kay
April 8th, 2025
1700 UK, 1800 CET, 1200 EST
Sir John Kay is one of Britain’s leading economists with wide practical experience in business and finance. A Fellow of the British Academy and Royal Society of Edinburgh, he was the founding dean of Oxford University’s Saïd Business School and held a chair at London Business School. He is a winner of the Senior Wincott Award for Financial Journalism for his Financial Times columns.
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